Coinbase Launches CoinbasePredict to Pioneer the Era of Regulated Event Based Trading
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On February 3, 2026, Coinbase officially expanded its “Everything Exchange” ecosystem with the public launch of CoinbasePredict, a fully integrated prediction market platform. This new vertical allows millions of verified users in the United States and selected global regions to trade on the outcomes of real-world events ranging from Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and political elections to sporting championships and the release of major blockbusters. By partnering with the CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi to provide the underlying market flow at launch, Coinbase is effectively mainstreaming event-based contracts by housing them alongside traditional crypto and equity portfolios. CEO Brian Armstrong characterized the move as a critical step in the “Amazonification” of financial services, aiming to provide users with a unified interface where they can express their worldviews through capital without navigating the complexities of unregulated or offshore prediction platforms.
Bridging the Gap Between Information Markets and Institutional Risk Management
CoinbasePredict distinguishes itself from decentralized competitors by operating within a strictly regulated framework that prioritizes transparency, fund segregation, and sophisticated market surveillance. The platform’s initial contract offerings focus heavily on “Economic Indicators,” such as the probability of the newly nominated Fed Chair Kevin Warsh implementing a fifty-basis-point rate cut in March. This strategic focus is designed to attract not just retail speculators, but also institutional fiduciaries who require reliable tools to hedge against macro volatility. All trades on the platform are denominated in USD or USDC, allowing for near-instant settlement upon event resolution. To ensure a robust information environment, Coinbase has integrated live news feeds and sentiment analysis tools directly into the trading interface, empowering participants to make informed forecasts while contributing to a transparent, real-time price discovery mechanism for global events that were previously difficult to monetize.
Strategic Integration Within the Base App and the Future of Social Prediction
The rollout of CoinbasePredict is being facilitated through the “Base App,” the company’s comprehensive “everything app” that combines social connectivity with high-velocity financial tools. By utilizing the Base Layer 2 network to settle transactions, Coinbase ensures that users can enter and exit prediction contracts with minimal fees and sub-second finality. A key feature of the new platform is “Social Forecasts,” which allows users to follow the portfolios of high-accuracy predictors and share their own market insights within integrated community hubs. Looking forward to the remainder of 2026, the firm plans to expand its contract sources beyond Kalshi to include other regulated providers and eventually support user-generated markets for niche local events. As prediction markets continue to grow into a multi-billion-dollar sector, CoinbasePredict is positioned to be the primary gateway for mass-market adoption, transforming the way modern investors interact with the news cycle and perceive the financial value of accurate information.